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| #58585 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:40 AM 26.Nov.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 DELTA CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. DELTA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO. DELTA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR SO WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 50 DEGREES WEST. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS DELTA BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STEERING PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS AND THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS TO ASSUME ANOTHER SOLUTION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 22.4N 38.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 23.1N 37.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 34.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 27.5N 31.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/1200Z 29.0N 27.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 15.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
