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| #58633 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:37 PM 26.Nov.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 DELTA CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO A CLUSTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND THE CENTER HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND DELTA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. DELTA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR SO WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 50 DEGREES WEST. THEN...A TURN TO THE EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS DELTA BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 23.2N 36.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 35.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 31.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 28.5N 26.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/1800Z 28.5N 20.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
