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| #58743 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:31 AM 27.Nov.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005 DELTA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT SHEARED...AND THE LOW-CLOUD LINES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL EYE. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1042Z ALSO HINTS THAT DELTA IS NOT QUITE AS WELL-ORGANIZED AS IT APPEARS. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO MATCH THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WOULD BE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD A BETTER CO-LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER WITH THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE BECOME ESTABLISHED. REGARDLESS...WESTERLY SHEAR OVER DELTA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE... AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD RESUME BY TOMORROW AT THE LATEST. OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP/GFS SHOWS DELTA INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/23...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO DIFFICULTY PLACING THE CENTER. DELTA IS MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST...BUT WILL SOON BE FORCED EASTWARD BY THE FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER WESTERN EUROPE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. A SOMEWHAT SLOWER TRACK WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHEAR OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH DELTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS...WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IN 24-36 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 27.7N 30.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 29.0N 27.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 21.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 29/0000Z 29.5N 15.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 10.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE |
