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| #58793 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:34 PM 27.Nov.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005 ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DELTA HAS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS CENTER A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...SHIP VQIB9 REPORTED 60 KT WINDS ABOUT 50 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 18Z. THE SHIP...WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF GOOD OBSERVATIONS...ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND 25 FT SEAS. ON THE BASIS OF THIS REPORT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DETERIORATE...HOWEVER...AND NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY. BY TOMORROW...DELTA WILL BE OVER 22C WATER WITH INCREASING SHEAR. OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP/GFS SHOWS DELTA INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF ITS STATUS...DELTA IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND GALES COULD REACH THE COAST OF MOROCCO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/23. DELTA IS ABOUT TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER LOW OVER WESTERN EUROPE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TO THE EAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 29.0N 28.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 29.8N 24.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 30.0N 19.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 29/0600Z 29.7N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 29/1800Z 29.3N 9.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE |
