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| #58822 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:55 PM 27.Nov.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED... BUT SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING THIS EVENING NOT FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. DELTA STILL MOSTLY HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... ALTHOUGH IT IS STARTING TO TAKE ON SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION... AND DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO PUNCH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES AND ON CONTINUITY... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT. DELTA WILL BE OVER 22C WATERS TOMORROW AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. HOWEVER... DELTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS IN ABOUT 18 HOURS AND TO THE COAST OF MOROCCO IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. DELTA IS GRADUALLY TURNING MORE EASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 070/23. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD... AS DELTA IS GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND WESTERN EUROPE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF DELTA... TOWARD MOROCCO... BUT WITH DISAGREEMENTS ON SPEED WHICH ARE OFTEN THE CASE WITH RAPIDLY MOVING SYSTEMS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE MODELS HANG ON TO DELTA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS OVER NORTHWESTERN AFRICA. THEREAFTER... THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 29.3N 26.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 30.0N 22.3W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 29/0000Z 30.0N 16.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 10.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 30/0000Z 29.0N 5.4W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE |
