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| #58853 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:49 AM 28.Nov.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005 DELTA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ZONALLY ELONGATED AND... ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS BEGINNING TO ASSUME THAT OF A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM. BASED ON SOME NON-RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. A FRONTAL ZONE IS IN THE VICINITY... AS EVIDENCED BY COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THICKNESS AND SURFACE PRESSURE FORECASTS FROM THE GFS DEPICT DELTA AS A FRONTAL CYCLONE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF DELTA SHOULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DELTA'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AFRICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF EAST NEAR 25 KT. A GENERALLY ZONAL CURRENT...PREVAILING AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS... SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A MOSTLY EASTWARD TRACK INTO MOROCCO...BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS. THIS IS ONLY A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 30.2N 23.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 30.3N 18.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 29/0600Z 30.3N 13.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 29/1800Z 30.3N 7.2W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 30/0600Z 30.0N 2.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 01/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE |
