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| #59130 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 PM 29.Nov.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS DISAPPEARED. HOWEVER... OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTER. A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT WAS NOTED BY THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. HOWEVER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED A LITTLE HIGHER AT 45 KT BASED ON A 29/1700Z PRESSURE OF 999.0 MB FROM BUOY 41543 LOCATED ABOUT 120 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER... AND SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS OF 30 KT AT 200-250 NMI FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/07 KT... ALTHOUGH EPSILON HAS MADE A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWARD WOBBLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A WEAK LOW LOCATED ABOUT 180 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE SECONDARY LOW IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT EPSILON WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE 24 HOURS...AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN 36-48 HOURS AS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND... THE DEEP- LAYER FLOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT OUT EPSILON TO THE NORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EPSILON HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE INFLOW OF LOW-LEVEL WARM UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER... AS THE LOW SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... THE INFLOW INTO THE CENTER OF EPSILON SHOULD RESUME AND CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER 24.5-25C SSTS... WHICH IS ABOUT 1C WARMER THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. SINCE EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 24-25C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING SEEMS REAOSNABLE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE THE SHIPS MODEL AND REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL... WHICH ONLY FORECASTS EPSILON TO REACH 42 KT IN 12 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 31.4N 51.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 31.5N 52.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 31.7N 53.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 32.4N 53.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 32.8N 52.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 33.6N 49.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/1800Z 35.5N 44.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/1800Z 40.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
