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| #59219 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 30.Nov.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005 THE CENTER OF EPSILON IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL ON SATELLITE AND IN FACT...THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE DETACHED FROM A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND LOCATED TO THE EAST. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS AND BASED ON QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE EPSILON IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LOW...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES NEARING THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND MOST LIKELY EPSILON WILL THEN BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS... STEERED BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. EPSILON SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY SHARPLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A ABOUT A DAY OR SO. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 31.2N 52.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 31.5N 54.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 32.5N 53.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 33.0N 51.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/0600Z 35.5N 47.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0600Z 38.0N 42.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/0600Z 40.5N 37.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
