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| #59263 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 AM 30.Nov.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005 EPSILON HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED MORE THAN 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CENTER... WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AND AND AFWA ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER... A 30/0913Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED WHAT APPEARS TO BE VALID 55 KT WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE MOTION IS 260/08. STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON IS FORECAST TO MOVE THE CYCLONE IN A WOBBLY WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED AS EPSILON MOVES INTO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. BY 36 HOURS... EPSILON IS FORECAST TO SLOW/STALL AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE EPSILON TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO A NORTHWARD BIAS BY THE GFS MODEL AFTER 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER... DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER MARGINAL SSTS OF 23-24C AND THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING OCCURS. HOWEVER ...EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 30.7N 53.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 30.9N 54.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 31.6N 54.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 32.4N 52.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 51.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1200Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1200Z 38.0N 42.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/1200Z 40.0N 37.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
