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| #59363 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 AM 01.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST THU DEC 01 2005 SOME GRADUAL COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES... BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT... WITH THE WEAKER END OF THIS RANGE DERIVED USING THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AND THE HIGHER END USING AN EYE PATTERN. SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD... BUT ONLY TO 55 KT. THE NEXT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS IS OCCURRING AT THIS HOUR... AND ONCE THAT DATA ARRIVES IT MIGHT HELP CLARIFY THE INTENSITY. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO ARGUE FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AS THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT INCREASE MARKEDLY AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL GET GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE GFDL FORECASTS BRIEF STRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 60 KT LATER THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE FORECASTS THE INTENSITY TO REMAIN IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS... WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A GRADUAL DECLINE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND CALLS FOR A LITTLE WEAKENING BEFORE EPSILON LIKELY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 22C WATERS. EPSILON HAS TURNED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/10 WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO. EPSILON IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... BUT THE LARGE-SCALE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS THE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD... EPSILON SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT FORECAST EPSILON TO MOVE VERY FAST... WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE GFS WHICH TAKES THE STORM QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. EXCEPT FOR BEING FASTER DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS... THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 30.2N 52.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 30.9N 50.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 32.0N 49.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 33.1N 47.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 34.0N 45.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0600Z 35.5N 41.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/0600Z 37.0N 38.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/0600Z 38.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
