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| #59406 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 AM 01.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST THU DEC 01 2005 OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND A RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE APPEARS TO TRYING TO DEVELOP...AGAIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT BASED A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER... A 01/0944Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB AND 61 KT WINDS. THE AMSU ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY A LITTLE TOO INTENSE FOR A SHALLOW HYBRID-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKE EPSILON... BUT THE EYE FEATURE NOTED IN CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ARGUE FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN THE 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN A 01/0847Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/10... ALTHOUGH EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS THAT EPSILON WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. AFTER THAT... HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO TWO CAMPS... WITH THE GFDL... GFS... AND CANADIAN MODELS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING EPSILON TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... WHEREAS THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDN... AND ECMWF MOVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES. IN FACT... BY 120 HOURS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS STALL EPSILON NEAR 30N 40W. GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY ALL THE MODELS... THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THE RESULTANT INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE BANDING EYE FEATURE AND THE RECENT RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER SUGGEST THE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO... AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT EPSILON COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER... BY 24 HOURS THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING... AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS... BARRING ANY SOUTHWARD MOTION OVER WARMER WATER THAT WOULD PROLONG BOTH THE LIFETIME OF EPSILON AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 31.2N 51.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 32.1N 50.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 33.4N 48.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 34.7N 46.7W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1200Z 35.6N 45.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/1200Z 37.5N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/1200Z 39.5N 36.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/1200Z 41.5N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
