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| #59473 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:17 PM 01.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST THU DEC 01 2005 WHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND A RAGGED EYE REMAINS APPARENT...THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EPSILON HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT. WHILE THERE IS STILL FAIR ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...THERE IS NO OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8. A LARGE-DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD STEER EPSILON NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS FAR FROM THE CORE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS MEANS EPSILON WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH FASTER THAN IT IS NOW. THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE GFS... GFDL...AND CANADIAN ACCELERATING EPSILON NORTHWARD...AND THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF TURNING IT MORE EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THIS SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER EAST- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. EPSILON WILL BE OVER 22C-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. EXPERIMENTAL CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THAT EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THE TRANSITION COULD BE DELAYED AS THE COLD FRONT THAT COULD CAUSE IT IS STILL WELL WEST OF EPSILON. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 32.2N 50.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 33.2N 48.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 34.6N 47.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.2W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0000Z 36.9N 43.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/0000Z 39.0N 39.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/0000Z 41.0N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/0000Z 42.5N 31.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
