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| #59506 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 02.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BAND NORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE TOPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN COLDER THAN -60C. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS AT 06Z CORRESPONDINGLY CAME UP A LITTLE BUT THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT. SINCE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS A LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED THAN SIX HOURS AGO AND IS WRAPPING MORE AROUND THE CENTER... EPSILON DOES NOT APPEAR WEAKER AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT ON THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 55 KT. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE EPSILON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. EVEN THOUGH EPSILON WILL BE OVER SUB-22C WATERS WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS... THE FORECAST TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION REMAINS 36-48 HOURS SINCE EPSILON WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SEPARATED FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS UNTIL THEN... EVEN IF THE FASTEST AND NORTHERNMOST MODEL TRACK VERIFIES. EPSILON IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AT 050/9 KT. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AS EPSILON WILL BE PUSHED AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO ITS WEST AND ABOUT TO ADVANCE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MODEL FORECASTS BEYOND THAT TIME HANDLE EXTRATROPICAL EPSILON IN VERY DIFFERENT WAYS. IF THE GFS AND GFDL ARE CORRECT...THE STORM WILL BE SWEPT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS. HOWEVER... IF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS ARE RIGHT... EPSILON MIGHT EVEN DIVE SOUTHWARD ON DAY FIVE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO ITS WEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE... BUT DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 32.8N 49.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 33.8N 48.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 35.2N 46.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 36.5N 44.2W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0600Z 37.8N 42.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/0600Z 40.5N 37.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/0600Z 42.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/0600Z 44.5N 30.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
