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| #59554 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 AM 02.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005 DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY ...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER ...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE... ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 01/0920Z NESDIS/CIRA AMSU PRESSSURE ESTIMATE WAS 986 MB.. AND 01/0920Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 985 MB/66 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... EPSILON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THIS IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED FOR A HURRICANE TO FORM THIS LATE IN THE SEASON OR OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE NOEL IN NOVEMBER 2001 FORMED NEAR 38N 50W...ABOUT 250 NMI NORTH OF EPSILON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/12 KT. SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK ...SO LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE CONVERGENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THEY HANDLE EPSILON AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE GFDL AND GFDN TAKE EPSILON MORE NORTHWARD... WHEREAS THE GFS... UKMET... AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD BY 120 HOURS DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION AND/OR MERGER WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AZORES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REMAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. SHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 160 NMI EAST OF EPSILON AT 12Z REPORTED A SST OF 24C/75F... WHICH INDICATES THAT EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG A NARROW RIDGE OF WARMER SSTS. THIS LIKELY EXPLAINS TO A LARGE DEGREE WHY EPSILON HAS BEEN ABLE TO IMPROVE ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... BUOYS NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE INDICATE SSTS BELOW 70F ARE LESS THAN 200 NMI AWAY. AS SUCH... EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AND PROBABLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 33.7N 48.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 34.6N 46.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/1200Z 38.3N 40.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/1200Z 40.8N 36.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/1200Z 43.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/1200Z 44.5N 29.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
