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| #59631 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 PM 02.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF EPSILON OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING MODEST AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THAT MUCH WIND IS REALLY MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE MODEST CONVECTION AND COOL SSTS. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT...THIS EVENING'S QUIKSCAT PASSES MISSED THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/9...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THAT HEADING...AND THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS COULD BE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR EPSILON'S ULTIMATE TRACK. THERE HAVE BEEN ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY NOW SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SCENARIOS. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AND ABSORPTION BY A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WITHIN THREE DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND NOW ALSO THE ECMWF... SHOW EPSILON MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERLIES AND TURNING SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR ARE VERY QUICK IN TURNING EPSILON EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF EPSILON SHOWS MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. GIVEN THIS...AND THE RECENT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK...I AM INCLINED TO FAVOR THE LATTER OF THE TWO SCENARIOS. WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND SO A SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A GRADUAL LOSS OF CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...IF A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MATERIALIZES...WEAKENING AND/OR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BE DELAYED BEYOND WHAT IS INDICATED BELOW. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 34.5N 46.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 35.2N 45.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 36.1N 42.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 36.9N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 05/0000Z 37.5N 38.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/0000Z 39.0N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/0000Z 39.0N 31.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/0000Z 39.0N 30.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
