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| #59745 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 PM 03.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005 EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST ALL ODDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER...EMBEDDED IN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER 21-22 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER. SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE BEST SO FAR AND IN FACT...DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUPPORTING 77 KNOTS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOL WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ONLY INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS. EPSILON CAN NOT MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY MUCH LONGER SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE MASS OF DRY AIR AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS NEARING THE HURRICANE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OVER COLD WATERS WILL OCCUR. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON IS RUNNING AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UK MODEL HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND UNANIMOUSLY... ALL MODELS TURN EPSILON TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AFTER A SMALL PERIOD OF SLOW MOTION BETWEEN A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAKES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN TURNING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...BY THEN THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON MOST LIKELY BE JUST A REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 34.5N 43.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 34.5N 41.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 34.5N 38.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 34.5N 36.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 33.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/1800Z 30.0N 34.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/1800Z 28.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW |
