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| #59775 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:17 PM 03.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 19...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005 ...CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH... EPSILON MAINTAINS A RAGGED 20 N MI WIDE EYE... BUT THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE THINNING OUT A LITTLE... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ONLY CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -50C ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT VIGOROUS... AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AROUND 22Z DID NOT REVEAL ANY WINDS STRONGER THAN 50 KT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION THAT IT SAMPLED. NEVERTHELESS... 00Z DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 55 TO 75 KT... ALTHOUGH THE DATA T NUMBERS HAVE ALL FALLEN TO 4.0 OR LESS. EPSILON MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT IN ANY CASE IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE ONE ON SUNDAY... SINCE IT IS HEADED FOR EVEN COOLER WATERS WHILE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE NOT FAR BEHIND. THE STEADY WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE MORE RAPID THAT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST AT ABOUT 36 HOURS SINCE EPSILON WILL BE OVER SUB-22C WATERS AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME ENTANGLED IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH EPSILON TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE SOUTH EARLIER THIS EVENING... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL TOWARD THE EAST OR 095/11. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNTIL A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WEST OF EPSILON AS ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. SINCE EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME... IT SHOULD COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER- TO MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD PULL EPSILON SOUTHWESTWARD... AS FORECAST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE MODELS. STRONG WIND SHEAR SHOULD STRIP EXTRATROPICAL EPSILON OF ANY REMAINING CONVECTION... LEAVING A REMNANT LOW TO SWEEP WESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 34.3N 41.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 34.2N 39.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 34.1N 37.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.8N 35.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 06/0000Z 33.3N 33.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 33.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0000Z 27.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 40.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW |
