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| #59914 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 PM 04.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005 EPSILON HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY AND IS NOW ON A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND. THE HURRICANE HAS A LARGE SYMMETRIC EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THE EYE HAS BEEN IN STEADY STATE...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE HIGHLY BASED ON THE STRUCTURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE RING. THE BEST WIND ESTIMATE IS 70 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON NO LONGER WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SINCE THE FRONTAL ZONE JUST PASSED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND THERE WAS NO APPARENT INTERACTION. INSTEAD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS SOON AS IT MAKES THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON A STEADY EASTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN IN THE LAST RUN...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. BY THEN...THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MUCH LIKE ONE OF THOSE SHALLOW SYSTEMS OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE EAST PACIFIC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 34.3N 38.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 34.4N 36.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 33.0N 33.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/1800Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1800Z 21.5N 45.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW |
