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| #60005 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 05.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005 DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAD BEEN RAGGED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT EARLIER...HAS BECOME COLDER AND MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z HAD BEEN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THEN HAVE BOUNCED BACK UP TO T4.5. WITH NO REAL OBSERVATIONS EXCEPT FOR QUIKSCAT PASSES ONCE OR TWICE A DAY...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHETHER EPSILON'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THESE DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DVORAK VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY...I'D LIKE TO SEE EPSILON MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE FOR A WHILE LONGER BEFORE CHANGING THE INTENSITY AGAIN. THE ADVISORY VALUE WILL REMAIN 65 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. EPSILON CONTINUES TO MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST...105/9. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CYCLONE'S STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF EPSILON AND A BLOCKING HIGH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTH AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GFDL HOLDS EPSILON AS A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A FAIRLY RAPID DECAY. SSTS UNDER EPSILON ARE ALREADY ABOUT AS COLD AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET. THE SHEAR IS ALSO NOT GOING TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL EPSILON BEGINS ITS TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN 24 HOURS OR SO. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE EARLY AND SHIPS GUIDANCE LATE. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON WAS STILL QUITE DISTINCT FROM THE FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING FROM EPSILON NORTHWARD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WITH THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION CONTINUING IT SEEMS THAT AN IMMINENT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS...ALAS...A LOST CAUSE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 33.8N 36.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 33.5N 35.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 32.7N 34.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 31.3N 34.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 29.8N 36.1W 35 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 26.5N 39.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/0600Z 20.0N 47.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
