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| #60166 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 PM 05.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005 WE HAVE SAID THIS BEFORE AT TIMES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS... ONLY TO HAVE EPSILON MAKE A COMEBACK THE FOLLOWING MORNING... BUT EPSILON REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR AS STRONG THIS EVENING AS IT DID THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST SOME CONSOLIDATION AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SIMILAR TO BEFORE... MOSTLY 65 KT WITH ANOTHER AT 77 KT... BUT NOW ALL OF THE T-NUMBERS CORRESPOND TO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT. AFTER MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR MOST OF THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... EPSILON NOW SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN THE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 135/3... AND VERY RECENTLY IT MIGHT NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH AT ALL. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE EPSILON WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD VERY SOON AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS WEST. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE APPARENT TURN IN PROGRESS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONFIDENCE. OCEAN TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT LIKELY COOPERATE IN PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH EPSILON CAN SURVIVE VERY LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOON EPSILON WILL NO LONGER BE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... AND BY ABOUT 36 HOURS IT WILL PROBABLY BEGIN WEAKENING FAIRLY QUICKLY. BY THAT TIME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR EPSILON... TO PIECES IF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ANY INDICATION. EVEN THE GFDL FORECASTS THE REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS NOT PERFORMED WELL DURING EPSILON THUS FAR... IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF MANY SYSTEMS LIKE THIS IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL DATABASE. SHIPS CONTINUES TO INSIST ON STEADY WEAKENING... WHICH STILL MIGHT NOT HAPPEN DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO... BUT SHIPS PROBABLY HAS THE RIGHT IDEA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS ONCE THE SHEAR REALLY KICKS IN. SO EPSILON'S DAYS APPEAR TO BE NUMBERED... WITH THAT NUMBER PROBABLY BEING LESS THAN FIVE... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY HOLDS ON TO A REMANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS. OTHERWISE THE PACE OF WEAKENING IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 33.3N 33.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 32.3N 33.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 30.7N 34.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 29.3N 35.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 27.8N 37.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 39.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
