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| #60198 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 06.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005 I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT. EPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. EPSILON IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 120 HOURS OR SOONER. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL KEEPS EPSILON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS CHANGED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 32.9N 33.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 32.1N 34.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.0N 37.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
