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| #60351 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 07.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005 THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....KICKING THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN. ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION OF LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER... THE WEAKENING PROCESS HAS TO BEGIN VERY SOON SINCE STRONG HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SAME TROUGH ARE ALREADY HEADING TOWARD THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...I HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING AT A FAST PACE. NEVERTHERELESS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL EPSILON BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 3 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 29.8N 36.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 28.7N 37.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 27.7N 38.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 39.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
