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| #60395 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:17 AM 07.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005 EPSILON IS STILL A BORDERLINE HURRICANE WITH A VERY RAGGED EYE... AND OUTFLOW THAT REMAINS MOSTLY UNDISTURBED BY THE STRONG WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HI-RES QUIKSCAT DATA AT 08Z CONTAINED A FEW 60 KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. AT 12-KM SPACING THESE VALUES WERE PROBABLY SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATES OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED... ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS THE QUESTION OF WHETHER ENOUGH OF THE SIGNAL IS COMING FROM THE OCEAN SURFACE. THE QUIKSCAT DATA DO SEEM REPRESENTATIVE WHEN CONSIDERING THAT 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT... AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM 09Z AVERAGED TO ABOUT 65 KT. EPSILON CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD RIGHT ALONG THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER... ABOUT 235/13. THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS LONG AS EPSILON PRODUCES SOME DEEP CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY BEND A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND SLOW DOWN AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY BEGINS TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON QUITE AS FAST AS THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SUGGESTING... BUT EVEN THE OFTEN SHEAR-RESISTANT GFDL FORECASTS WEAKENING TO LESS THAN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 36 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON COULD STAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ADVANCES EASTWARD. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY SOLUTION... WHICH IS ONLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE GFDL IN ANTICIPATING A GRADUALLY SLOWING SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF EPSILON UNTIL IT IS SHEARED APART. EPSILON IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE BY 48 HOURS INTO A REMNANT LOW... WHICH SHOULD THEREAFTER BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE PASSING TO ITS NORTH. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 29.1N 37.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 27.8N 38.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 26.4N 39.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 25.3N 40.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.6N 40.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
