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| #60437 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 PM 07.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005 THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND THE AIRFORCE CONTINUE TO CLASSIFY EPSILON AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE..WITH T NUMBERS 3.0-4.0 FROM SAB AND 3.5-4.0 FROM THE AIRFORCE RESPECTIVELY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS...UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON...WITH THE STORM REMAINING IN A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC..NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EPSILON CONTINUES TO BE STEERED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...235/13...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STORM. THE FORECAST RATIONALE FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING EPSILON TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STORM AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO EPSILONS WEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE STORM...WEAKENING IS LIKELY...WITH EPSILON FALLING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY THURSDAY. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. FORECASTER ORAVEC FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 28.1N 38.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 27.2N 39.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 25.4N 39.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 24.5N 40.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.6N 40.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
