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| #6047 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 25.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2004 IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A LITTLE...PRIMARILY IN A CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH...AND THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED EVERYWHERE BUT TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SOME SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL AND SHIPS MODELS. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HINDER SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS. BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IT IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. MOST LIKELY THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT LATER TODAY IF MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD WELL-EAST OT THE LESSER ANTILLES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 11.4N 37.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 11.8N 39.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 12.5N 42.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 13.5N 44.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 14.5N 46.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 16.5N 49.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 52.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 22.0N 54.0W 70 KT |
