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| #60475 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:17 PM 07.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005 THE NORTHWESTERLIES ARRIVED OVER EPSILON THIS AFTERNOON...STRIPPING THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. USING A BLEND OF T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT. WITH EVEN STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ON THE WAY...EPSILON WILL DECAY RAPIDLY...PERHAPS LOSING ALL CONVECTION BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/10. EPSILON WILL BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW AS IT DECAYS...AND THIS FLOW...CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY...WILL WEAKEN AND REVERSE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS WITH THE GFS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 27.8N 39.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 26.9N 39.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 26.7N 39.8W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
