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| #605019 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 06.Jun.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER. THE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB EXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS...ANDREA SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS MODELS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 27.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 32.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/0600Z 39.0N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 46.5N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z 52.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
