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| #60510 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 08.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005 EPSILON IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO FINALLY ACHIEVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED. THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DECREASING THIS MORNING AND ONLY REMAINS IN A VERY LIMITED AREA DOWNSHEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS 06Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... AND THE FACT THAT SINCE THEN THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED. THE CONVECTION IS DYING OFF SO FAST THAT IT WILL PROBABLY BE COMPLETELY GONE BY THE EFFECTIVE TIME OF THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BUT HAS SLOWED DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 215/7 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST IT MIGHT BE EVEN SLOWER THAN THAT. EPSILON WILL SOON BE A REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE ALL THAT MUCH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS COLLAPSING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF THE REMANT LOW STILL EXISTS BEYOND 24 HOURS... IT WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST A NEW EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER IT ABSORBS EPSILON... BUT THAT WOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF HAPPENING EVEN WITHOUT THE REMANTS OF EPSILON. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 27.1N 39.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 26.8N 39.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 09/0600Z 26.7N 38.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE |
