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| #608746 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 18.Jun.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 THE CENTER IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENISULA. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER LAND. HOWEVER...IF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. EVEN IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS OBSERVED IN THE MODELS IN THIS AREA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALTHOUGH A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.9N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.1N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/1200Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 20/0000Z 19.0N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 20/1200Z 19.1N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
