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| #609004 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 19.Jun.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THAT CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MOST RECENT STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 300/8. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS SHOULD INDUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DECELERATION ALONG WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL FORECAST...AND DELAYS THE TIME OF LANDFALL IN MEXICO A LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST ADVISORY. BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS... THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.3N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 19.4N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.4N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 19.3N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0600Z 19.2N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
