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| #609132 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 19.Jun.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY...THE SECOND NAMED CYCLONE OF THE 2013 SEASON. SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SOME SFMR VALUES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT THESE WINDS WERE RAIN CONTAMINATED AND WERE DISCARDED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BARRY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...BUT RAINS WILL CONTINUE. BARRY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARS SPEED IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...AND THE CENTER BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ UNTIL DISSIPATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.6N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 19.6N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0600Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
