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| #609275 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 20.Jun.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAGUNA VERDE...VERACRUZ HARBOR AND SACRIFICE ISLAND STATIONS NEAR THE CITY OF VERACRUZ INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS VERY NEAR THE COAST...AND BARRY SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ SHORTLY. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. WEAKENING SHOULD BE RAPID AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE EXTREMELY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR ABOUT 270/4. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BARRY SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 19.6N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0600Z 19.6N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA |
