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| #6118 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 25.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF FRANCES. BANDING FEATURES HAVE NOT BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE EAST AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW ALONG THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SO...IN SPITE OF THE RECENT LEVELLING OFF IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR IS INDICATED BY THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT FOR 96 AND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO SHIPS...AS WELL AS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION...NOW 280/14. A MID-LATITUDE 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FEATURE IS CERTAINLY AT TOO HIGH A LATITUDE TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE STEERING OF FRANCES. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FURTHER SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT. AMONGST THE GUIDANCE SUITE...TWO TRACKS...THE GFS AND THE U.K. MET...ARE OUTLIERS. THE GFS IS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS WHEREAS THE U.K. MET. IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL...GFDN...NOGAPS...AND CONU CONSENSUS FORECASTS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 11.8N 41.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 12.5N 43.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 13.5N 46.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 14.5N 47.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 49.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 17.3N 51.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 54.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 31/0000Z 20.5N 56.5W 80 KT |
