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| #615142 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 10.Jul.2013) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...THANKS TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL...WE WERE ABLE TO LOCATE ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...OR PERHAPS MUCH EARLIER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER DEFINITION IS POOR. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER... THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS DURING THE 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 16.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 18.1N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.0N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 25.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
