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| #6178 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 26.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2004 BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW QUITE SYMMETRICAL AND THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF AN EYE...OR WARM SPOT...ON THE INFRARED IMAGES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING EVEN MORE WELL-DEFINED...AND GLOBAL MODEL 200 MB WIND FORECASTS SHOW A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER/AROUND FRANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS INEVITABLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS. THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE...295/13...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE PICTURE BY 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LEFTWARD TURN OF THE HURRICANE SEEMS LIKELY...BUT HOW MUCH OF A TURN WILL OCCUR IS UNCLEAR. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT 500 MB DOES NOT SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN VERY STRONGLY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY 4-5 DAYS. THEREFORE THE FORWARD SPEED WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT 4- AND 5-DAY FORECAST POINTS CAN EASILY BE IN ERROR BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 14.0N 47.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 15.0N 49.1W 85 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 16.3N 51.2W 95 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 17.5N 52.8W 100 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 18.4N 54.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 56.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 31/0000Z 21.5N 59.0W 105 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 22.0N 62.0W 105 KT |
