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| #619619 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 AM 26.Jul.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DORIAN IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THIS...ALONG WITH MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW THE STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IS THAT DORIAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG MID- TO LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.7N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.1N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.7N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 19.2N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 19.7N 58.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 20.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 21.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
