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| #619920 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 27.Jul.2013) TCDAT4 REMNANTS OF DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 ASCAT AMBIGUITY DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT DORIAN NO LONGER HAD A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THUS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS STILL ABOUT 35 KT ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN 2-3 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 18.9N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS OF DORIAN 12H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
