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| #6205 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 27.Aug.2004) TCMAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004 1500Z FRI AUG 27 2004 INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 49.0W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 65SE 65SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 49.0W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.8N 50.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 52.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.0N 53.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.9N 55.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.2N 58.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 65SE 55SW 65NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 115SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 21.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART |
