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| #6232 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:16 PM 27.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004 FRANCES HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS INDICATED BY A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5...OR 102 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN VERTICAL DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND OUTWARD. THE MOTION IS 305/09. FRANCES HAS MADE A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD JOG AS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED DUE NORTH OF FRANCES MOVES EASTWARD AND THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD TURN FRANCES BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THERE IS NOW MUCH LESS DIVERGENCE IN THE NHC MODEL SUITE AFTER 48 HOURS ...AND IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS. ALL OF THE MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC AFTER 48HR WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO EXTEND EAST-WEST FROM THE AZORES TO BERMUDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ALL OF THESE MODELS ARE CONVERGING NICELY ABOUT THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECAST TRACKS...SO I SEE NO REASON AT THIS TIME TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER INCREASING SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL NOW MAKES FRANCES A 113 KT MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...SINCE THE 'SELF-INDUCED' VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED OWING TO THE GFS FORECAST POSITONS BEING CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...BUT CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY SEEMS LIKELY SOME TIME DURING THAT PERIOD...AND CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH IS EVEN POSSIBLE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.7N 49.8W 100 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 16.9N 51.2W 105 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 17.9N 52.8W 110 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 18.9N 54.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 19.7N 56.4W 115 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 20.6N 60.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 31/1800Z 21.5N 64.5W 115 KT 120HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 69.0W 115 KT |
