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| #624528 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 15.Aug.2013) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 29.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 29.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 28.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 31.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 33.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.6N 35.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.6N 37.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 29.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
