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| #625127 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 18.Aug.2013) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 ERIN CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 150 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED... PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 30 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN HOSTILE TO REGENERATION...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING PERSISTENTLY STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...OR SOONER. ERIN IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 260/9...WITHIN THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOWS THIS MOTION OR A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 20.5N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 20.5N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 20.5N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 20.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 20.5N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
