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| #6254 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:10 PM 27.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATONS...ALONG WITH WSR-88D DATA FROM CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA...INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD-7 IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. BY 96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AND CARRIED OUT TO SEA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS SHOWING GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THUS... GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY 24 HR AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT AT LANDFALL. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 31.6N 78.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 31.5N 78.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 32.8N 80.0W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 29/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/1800Z 35.1N 77.7W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 31/1800Z 39.0N 74.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 01/1800Z 42.0N 64.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
