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| #6262 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 27.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004 SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 KT. HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER SYMMETRIC WITH SOME BANDING AND A LATELY INCREASING BUT NOT TOO WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 40 KT IN 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS THE WINDS TO 52 KT BEFORE LANDFALL AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR ON THE CHARLESTON OR WILMINGTON RADARS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE AT 00Z IS AN UNCERTAIN 150/02 AND AN UNCERTAIN 180/02 AT 03Z. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED VERY SLOW MOTION FOR A DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY TURNS WESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS INDICATED AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GENERAL SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT THE LANDFALL TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 31.3N 78.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 31.2N 78.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 31.6N 78.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 32.7N 79.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 33.8N 78.9W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.0N 77.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0000Z 39.0N 72.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/0000Z 42.0N 62.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
