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| #627159 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 25.Aug.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT ON ITS OUTBOUND LEG IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND MEXICAN COASTAL OBSERVING STATIONS SACV4 AND VERV4 IN VERACRUZ HARBOR HAVE REPORTED 10-METER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT AND 44 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT AND 63 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON THAT WIND DATA...THE INTENSITY OF FERNAND HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ IN A FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY BE ONGOING BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE REPORTS AND A RECENT BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTAINING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/08 KT...AND IS BASED MAINLY ON MODEL GUIDANCE. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AFTER WHICH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES PARALLEL TO RATHER THAN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FERNAND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE VERACRUZ METROPOLITAN AREA TONIGHT AND BE INLAND BY 0600 UTC. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FERNAND. THESE RAINS COULD TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 19.3N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 19.7N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/0000Z 20.3N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND 36H 27/1200Z 21.0N 99.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND 48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
