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| #627208 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 26.Aug.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ. WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS FROM LA MANCHA BEACH...NOT FAR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. WHILE IT WAS CROSSING THE COASTLINE...THE CENTER TURNED TO THE RIGHT...AND IT PRACTICALLY PARALLELED THE COAST AFTER MOVING INLAND. THIS MOTION MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SINCE THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER WEST LATER TODAY...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...VERY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 26/1800Z 20.4N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 21.5N 100.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
