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| #627268 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 26.Aug.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THAT FERNAND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND FERNAND HAS WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8 KT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 20.3N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 20.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1200Z 21.4N 99.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
