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| #6280 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 28.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS FEW HOURS AGO AND CONVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE WINDS BUT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 100-KNOT WINDS AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME...AND IS HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE... INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE EXPECTED TURN MORE TO THE WEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET AND IN FACT GLOBAL AND THE GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD NOT BEGIN FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STRONG AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE CREATING A PATTERN THAT WOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WESTWARD TRACK. THE UK MODEL IS NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS AND THE UK MODEL SOLUTION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.0N 51.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 18.0N 52.5W 105 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 54.3W 110 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 20.0N 56.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 58.5W 115 KT 72HR VT 31/0600Z 21.0N 63.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 01/0600Z 22.0N 68.5W 115 KT 120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 72.4W 115 KT |
