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| #6282 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 28.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM CHARLESTON SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER IN A CYCLONIC CURVED BAND. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 31.2N 78.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 31.3N 78.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 79.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 32.2N 79.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/0600Z 34.6N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0600Z 39.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/0600Z 42.5N 60.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
