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| #629809 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 05.Sep.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 GABRIELLE IS BEING GENEROUSLY MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO KEEP IT FROM BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERY BADLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER BY ABOUT 180 N MI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1010 MB BASED ON MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...THERE ARE NO SIGNS AT THIS TIME THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS TRYING TO RE-FORM THERE. IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...AND MOVES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AFTER 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS. WHETHER THIS WILL VERIFY...AND WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS FROM THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE OR FROM ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/8. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GABRIELLE SHOULD ALLOW A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST TO OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.2N 68.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 19.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 20.8N 70.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
