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| #630904 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 10.Sep.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING... AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THAT THE STORM HAD A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS SINCE DISSOLVED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LARGER BUT BROKEN INNER BAND OF CONVECTION. IN SOME SENSE...THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...EXCEPT THAT HUMBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED A MOTION OF 295/8 KT...BUT THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY DUE TO A WEAKENING AZORES HIGH TO THE NORTH. TWO DEEP-LAYERED LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTH AFRICA...SHOULD STEER HUMBERTO NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD NORTH OF HUMBERTO BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WERE REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE. ONCE THE INNER CORE OF HUMBERTO REORGANIZES...THERE IS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND THE STORM REACHES A MORE HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HUMBERTO REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY...BUT THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY IN A DAY OR TWO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD JUST A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.6N 27.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.3N 28.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 16.6N 29.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 18.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 20.5N 29.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 23.5N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 24.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 25.0N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG |
